Global Macro Command Center

Cooling toward ~2.5% target path; markets pricing disinflation without recession.

Cut cycle underway; ~2 further cuts priced by Dec-2026.

Above-trend but decelerating; growth scare off for now.

Jobs cooling toward pre-pandemic pace — typical mid-cycle.

Dovish tilt; dot plot shows gradual easing through 2026.

Liquidity inflecting higher — supportive for risk assets.

QT nearly terminal; runoff exhaustion imminent.

TGA drawdown injecting reserves into the system.

RRP draining toward zero = liquidity cushion being spent.

Easing lending standards; credit impulse turning positive.

Stress well below warning zone; no systemic event risk.

Term premium normalizing; curve steepening = reflation signal.

Dollar soft — tailwind for gold, EM and commodities.

Complacency building but structure constructive.

Elevated but de-escalating; residual tail risk in oil.

Supply tightness + inventory draws; watch for inflation second-round.

Contraction narrowing — inventory restocking underway.

Services resilient — consumer holding. Soft landing intact.

Sentiment improving with easing inflation expectations.

Core remains sticky above headline; shelter is the driver.

Close to target; supports a disinflation path without recession.

Real rates easing — a direct tailwind for non-yielding gold.

Wage growth cooling — reduces inflation second-round risk.

Consumer holding, not booming — a soft-landing signature.

Loose conditions — markets pricing policy support.

Broadening participation — healthier than a narrow AI-led tape.

Positioning elevated — room to run but less contrarian support.

Western ETF inflows returning — demand breadth improving.

Moderate leverage — not yet a blow-off signal.

Claims drifting up — the labour market is cooling.