Natural Gas

NATGASREFERENCE

Seasonal demand, ample storage

Updated 2026-09-03T10:31:27.773Z

Live price

$2.18 ▲ +1.40%

Open

$2.15

High

$2.18

Low

$2.14

Prev Close

$2.15

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Natural Gas confluence

NEUTRAL
60/100 BULLISH · MEDIUM confidence
0Neutral100

Biases

Macro NEUTRAL
Technical NEUTRAL
AI NEUTRAL

Supporting

  • Fed Policy — Fed funds 4.25% · stance 0.6
  • Real Yields — 10Y TIPS 1.52%
  • DXY — DXY 97.45 · down

Conflicting

  • Geopolitics reading 28 resists the bullish case

Invalidation

  • Real yields reverse against the thesis
  • Natural Gas loses key support/resistance
  • A surprise inflation or labour print flips the regime overlay

Scenarios

REFERENCE
Base case 55%
Consolidation 30%
Invalidation 15%
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Key levels

Resistance

$2.30

$2.45

Support

$2.05

$1.95

Invalidation

$1.88

Character

Regime

reflation

Volatility

high

Liquidity

medium

Sentiment

50/100

Positioning & narrative

50/100

Weather-driven; storage builds temper upside

LNG export capacity growth is the structural demand story.

AI view

Seasonal demand, ample storage.

Events that can move Natural Gas

DateEventRegionImp.PrevForecast