The state of the global economy at a glance. Bias computed from weighted factors and the regime engine � every figure is a typed provider output.
RAW DATA (30 macro factors) → MACRO REGIME (Disinflationary Late-Cycle Growth · 64%) → CONFLUENCE (see /confluence) → AI REASONING (Chankya) → ASSET BIAS (below) → SCENARIOS → TRADE/WAIT.
Global Macro Market Bias
Weighted across 30 macro factors. Bull 48 · Bear 2 · Neutral 9.
Macro Regime Engine
Disinflationary Late-Cycle GrowthRegime fit 64% · confidence MEDIUM · transition Stable
Inflation
↓2.9% (CPI YoY)
Growth
↓2.4% (GDP YoY)
Employment
↑0K NFP·228K claims
Central Banks
↓4.3% Fed target
Real Yields
↓1.52% (10Y TIPS)
DXY
↓99.63
Recession Risk
36%
›Growth decelerates with real GDP at 2.4% — above trend but cooling.
›Inflation is falling — core-PCE near target, headline 2.9%.
›Liquidity is expanding as QE runoff nears exhaustion and the TGA draws down.
›A disinflationary late-cycle backdrop: growth positive-but-cooling, inflation falling, liquidity rising — a classic constructive-but-fragile mix.
The global bias reads constructive at 96/100, weighted across 30 factors. Disinflation, a soft dollar and inflecting liquidity are the main drivers.
The regime engine classes the environment as "Disinflationary Late-Cycle Growth" at 64% fit (MEDIUM confidence) from 13 scored dimensions. Growth decelerates with real GDP at 2.4% — above trend but cooling.
Recession risk is 36%. The principal tail risks are a labour-market slowdown and an inflation second-round via oil or wage stickiness.
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CME
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NYMEX
ICE
NYMEX
Inflation Trend
CPI
Headline cooling toward target; core still sticky. Markets pricing a continued path to ~2.5% without recession.
Affects
Interest-Rate Trend
Fed Funds Target
Easing cycle intact; two further cuts priced by year-end. Looser policy supports duration and risk assets.
Affects
GDP Growth
US QoQ ann.
Above-trend but decelerating. A growth scare is off the table for now; soft-landing remains the base case.
Affects
Labour Market
NFP
Jobs cooling faster than expected — reads light for demand but not yet recessionary. Wage stickiness is the watch.
Affects
Banking Stress
Composite
Stress modestly above prior but far below systemic warning thresholds. No funding stress signals.
Affects
Financial Liquidity
G4 M2
Aggregate liquidity inflecting higher — a constructive backdrop for risk assets and long-duration plays.
Affects
Credit Conditions
HY Spread
High-yield spreads tightening; credit impulse turning positive — a healthy risk-appetite signal.
Affects
Consumer Confidence
UMich
Moderating — consumers cautious on outlook, but spending data has not weakened sharply. Watch labour.
Affects
Manufacturing
ISM
Factory gauge back above 50 — broad-based improvement led by new orders. Not yet hot enough to re-alert inflation.
Affects
Services
ISM
Services resilient — consumer and business activity holding. Composite remains expansionary.
Affects
Housing
Existing Home Sales
Elevated rates damp affordability; sales near cyclical lows. A headwind, not yet a systemic one.
Affects
Recession Probability
12M model
Low single-digit-to-mid probability. Soft landing base case, but labour weakness bears watching.
Affects
Geopolitical Risk
GPR
Elevated but de-escalating. Residual tail risk in energy and safe-haven demand; manageable for risk assets.
Affects
Market Volatility
VIX
Calm but not complacent. Low vol supports carry and momentum until an inflation or event shock.
Affects
US Dollar Trend
DXY
Soft dollar on Fed easing — a tailwind for EM, gold and commodities; headwind for USD longs.
Affects
Bond Yields
US10Y
Yields drifting lower with disinflation — supportive for duration and growth-finite assets, context-dependent for banks.
Affects
Growth & Inflation
Inflation Trend
CPI
Headline cooling toward target; core still sticky. Markets pricing a continued path to ~2.5% without recession.
Affects
Interest-Rate Trend
Fed Funds Target
Easing cycle intact; two further cuts priced by year-end. Looser policy supports duration and risk assets.
Affects
GDP Growth
US QoQ ann.
Above-trend but decelerating. A growth scare is off the table for now; soft-landing remains the base case.
Affects
Labour Market
NFP
Jobs cooling faster than expected — reads light for demand but not yet recessionary. Wage stickiness is the watch.
Affects
Consumer Confidence
UMich
Moderating — consumers cautious on outlook, but spending data has not weakened sharply. Watch labour.
Affects
Recession Probability
12M model
Low single-digit-to-mid probability. Soft landing base case, but labour weakness bears watching.
Affects
Liquidity & Credit
Financial Liquidity
G4 M2
Aggregate liquidity inflecting higher — a constructive backdrop for risk assets and long-duration plays.
Affects
Credit Conditions
HY Spread
High-yield spreads tightening; credit impulse turning positive — a healthy risk-appetite signal.
Affects
Banking Stress
Composite
Stress modestly above prior but far below systemic warning thresholds. No funding stress signals.
Affects
Bond Yields
US10Y
Yields drifting lower with disinflation — supportive for duration and growth-finite assets, context-dependent for banks.
Affects
Activity
Manufacturing
ISM
Factory gauge back above 50 — broad-based improvement led by new orders. Not yet hot enough to re-alert inflation.
Affects
Services
ISM
Services resilient — consumer and business activity holding. Composite remains expansionary.
Affects
Housing
Existing Home Sales
Elevated rates damp affordability; sales near cyclical lows. A headwind, not yet a systemic one.
Affects
Risk & External
Geopolitical Risk
GPR
Elevated but de-escalating. Residual tail risk in energy and safe-haven demand; manageable for risk assets.
Affects
Market Volatility
VIX
Calm but not complacent. Low vol supports carry and momentum until an inflation or event shock.
Affects
US Dollar Trend
DXY
Soft dollar on Fed easing — a tailwind for EM, gold and commodities; headwind for USD longs.
Affects
Chankya AI
Regime + Confluence + live news/calendar
What is driving markets right now?