Geopolitical Risk Monitor
REFERENCEEach active theatre is graded, given a stress contribution and mapped to the assets it can move. REFERENCE/demo layer until a real-time GPR feed is connected.
Composite GPR Stress
58/100
Mean stress contribution across 7 theatres.
Escalating / Volatile
2 theatre(s)
Theatres demanding active hedges.
Most exposed assets
Active theatres
7 trackedEastern Europe
Russia–Ukraine war
Front lines frozen; negotiation channels open. Energy supply disruption priced out but residual escalation risk remains.
Levant / Gulf
Middle East (Israel–Iran)
Strait-of-Hormuz risk keeps a structural oil premium. Gold carries a fear bid on any strike headlines.
Global
OPEC+ supply discipline
Quota discipline holds the oil floor; demand softness caps the ceiling. Watch monthly compliance data.
Maritime
Red Sea / Suez shipping
Diversion of tankers easing; freight and LNG-carrying costs normalizing but above pre-crisis levels.
Asia-Pacific
US–China tech export controls
Semiconductor and AI-chip restrictions tightening; supply-chain relocation is a medium-term Chinese-AI drag.
East Asia
Taiwan Strait
Military pressure steady; markets treat it as background risk unless a blockade headline appears.
Global
LNG / energy sanctions
Sanctions architecture on Russian energy remains; European storage is full, muting immediate gas upside.
Hotspot grades and stress contributions are reference/demo data — a snapshot is not a live feed. Ratings feed the regime engine's geopolitical dimension and the Confluence Engine's Geopolitics factor on affected assets. No automated decision should rest on these grades alone.