US Dollar Index
DXYREFERENCERate differentials compress in favor of rest-of-world
Updated 2026-09-03T10:31:27.773Z
Live price
99.63 ▲ +0.16%
Open
99.44
High
99.96
Low
99.09
Prev Close
99.47
Live Chart — TradingView
LIVEUS Dollar Index confluence
NEUTRAL 59/100 NEUTRAL · MEDIUM confidence
0Neutral100
Biases
Macro BEARISH
Technical BEARISH
AI NEUTRAL
Supporting
- •Fed Policy — Fed funds 4.25% · stance 0.6
- •Real Yields — 10Y TIPS 1.52%
- •DXY — DXY 97.45 · down
Conflicting
- •Fed Policy reading 73 resists the bearish case
- •Real Yields reading 70 resists the bearish case
- •DXY reading 68 resists the bearish case
Invalidation
- •DXY reverse against the thesis
- •US Dollar Index reclaims key support/resistance
- •A surprise inflation or labour print flips the regime overlay
Key levels
Resistance
98.40
99.60
Support
96.80
95.90
Invalidation
100.20
Character
Regime
reflation
Volatility
low
Liquidity
high
Sentiment
44/100
Positioning & narrative
Long-USD crowded and unwinding
USD downside is the natural expression of a global easing cycle.
AI view
Rate differentials compress in favor of rest-of-world.
Events that can move US Dollar Index
| Date | Event | Region | Imp. | Prev | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 11:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI — Sep | US | low | 49.4 | 49.8 |
| 4 Sept 13:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls — Sep | US | high | 165K | 150K |
| 4 Sept 13:30 | Unemployment Rate — Sep | US | medium | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| 10 Sept 13:30 | CPI YoY — Aug | US | high | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 11 Sept 14:00 | FOMC Rate Decision (upper bound) | US | high | 4.25% | 4.00% |
| 17 Sept 13:30 | Retail Sales MoM — Aug | US | low | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 24 Sept 14:00 | Final Q2 GDP (QoQ ann.) | US | high | 2.4% | 2.4% |